LTV per Download

The Pour Over App · value of a single install · cohort-survival model with power-law retention extrapolation.
Center of truth · May 18 – Jun 21 · five complete weeks
May 18 – June 21 · five complete dashboard weeks (35 days). Rolled up from May 18–24, May 25–31, Jun 1–7, Jun 8–14, and Jun 15–21: clicks/new-users/upgrades summed, WAU averaged across the five weeks. Jun 15–21 contributed 11 annual + 10 monthly + 0 lifetime. Monthly subs now churn on their own rate (27%/mo, from RevenueCat: 6 of 22 set-to-cancel) → $18.52 LTV, not the $272.73 the old annual-renewal method implied. Annual renewal 78% from internal Stripe (RevenueCat shows 86% set-to-renew, so conservative).
Total LTV / download
$0.00
Sponsor + Upgrade value of one install
Sponsor LTV
Newsletter sponsor clicks over lifetime
Upgrade LTV
$0.00
Annual + monthly + lifetime conversions
Expected active days
0
Area under retention curve, D0 → horizon (5 yr)

1 Window inputs May 18 – Jun 21

Active users (window)avg WAU — stock, not summed · (8,254 + 7,554 + 5,958 + 6,297 + 6,122) ÷ 5
Sponsor clicks (window)Edition-windowed app clicks · 441 + 326 + 297 + 186 + 409 (Jun 15–21)
New users (window)Downloads / first opens · 2,904 + 1,068 + 1,018 + 1,311 + 994 (Jun 15–21)
Annual upgrades ($49)14 + 10 + 13 + 13 + 11 (Jun 15–21)
Monthly upgrades ($5/mo)0 + 0 + 2 + 7 + 10 (Jun 15–21)
Lifetime upgrades ($199)0 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 0 (Jun 15–21)
Days in window35 = May 18 – Jun 21 (5 weeks) · validate $2.26 with one week (days=7) + horizon=365
Lifetime horizon (days)how far the retention curve is integrated · 1825 = 5 yr · 365 = 1 yr

3 Retention anchors Firebase / GA4

D1 retentionlive Q2 cohort (Apr 1–Jun 20, n=16,116) · % active 1 day after install
D30 retentionlive Q2 cohort · % active 30 days after install

2 Pricing & renewal

Sponsor CPC ($/click)
Annual sub price
Monthly sub price ($/mo)$5/mo · churned on its own rate below, not the annual one
Monthly churn (per month)27% — RevenueCat: 6 of 22 active monthly subs already set-to-cancel (Jun 2026, n=22, early/first-month — likely a near-term ceiling). Monthly LTV = price ÷ churn
Lifetime sub price
Annual renewal rate78% — internal Stripe: TPO premium newsletter subs churn ~2%/mo → ~78.5% annual retention. RevenueCat snapshot: 86% of annual subs set-to-renew, so 78% is conservative

4 Derived parameters

Decay exponent kR(d) = D1 · d^(−k), fit from D1 & D30
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Sponsor rev / active user / day(clicks ÷ AU ÷ days) × CPC
—
Annual sub LTVgeometric: price ÷ (1 − renewal)
—
Monthly sub LTVgeometric: price ÷ monthly churn
—
Lifetime sub LTV
—
Annual conversion rateannual upgrades ÷ new users
—
Monthly conversion ratemonthly upgrades ÷ new users
—
Lifetime conversion ratelifetime upgrades ÷ new users
—

7 Diagnostics verify vs dashboard

CheckModelExpected
D7 retention (model)—12.3% live Q2
Active days · year 1 (D0–D365)—~12.2
Active days · tail (D366→horizon)—power-law tail
Sponsor rev / WAU / wk—= (clk÷AU)×CPC
Total LTV per download—$2.26 single-wk check

5 Daily retention curve D0 → 5 yr · log time axis