LTV per Download

The Pour Over App · value of a single install · cohort-survival model with power-law retention extrapolation.
Center of truth · May 18 – Jun 2 · incl. new June cohort
May 18 – June 2 · now includes the new monthly tier. June 1–2 added 9 annual + 2 monthly upgrades (new-cohort conversions). Monthly subs are $5/mo = $60/yr, retained at the same 78% annual rate → $272.73 LTV (higher than annual). Renewal 78% is from internal Stripe (TPO premium newsletter churn ~2%/mo).
Total LTV / download
$0.00
Sponsor + Upgrade value of one install
Sponsor LTV
Newsletter sponsor clicks over lifetime
Upgrade LTV
$0.00
Annual + monthly + lifetime conversions
Expected active days
0
Area under retention curve, D0–D365

1 Window inputs May 18 – Jun 2

Active users (window)avg WAU — stock, not summed
Sponsor clicks (window)Edition-windowed app clicks · 441 + 326 + 158 (Jun 1–2)
New users (window)Downloads / first opens · 3,972 (May 18–31) + 403 (Jun)
Annual upgrades ($49)14 + 10 + 9 (Jun)
Monthly upgrades ($5/mo)new June tier · 2 (Jun 1–2)
Lifetime upgrades ($199)0 + 2 + 0
Days in window16 = May 18 – Jun 2 · use 7 + one week to validate $2.26

3 Retention anchors Firebase / GA4

D1 retentionlive Q2 cohort (Apr 1–May 31) · % active 1 day after install
D30 retentionlive Q2 cohort · % active 30 days after install

2 Pricing & renewal

Sponsor CPC ($/click)
Annual sub price
Monthly sub price ($/mo)$5/mo = $60/yr · same renewal as annual
Lifetime sub price
Annual renewal rate78% — internal Stripe: TPO premium newsletter subs churn ~2%/mo → ~78.5% annual retention (vs 44–62% generic app benchmarks)

4 Derived parameters

Decay exponent kR(d) = D1 · d^(−k), fit from D1 & D30
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Sponsor rev / active user / day(clicks ÷ AU ÷ days) × CPC
—
Annual sub LTVgeometric: price ÷ (1 − renewal)
—
Monthly sub LTV(price×12) ÷ (1 − renewal)
—
Lifetime sub LTV
—
Annual conversion rateannual upgrades ÷ new users
—
Monthly conversion ratemonthly upgrades ÷ new users
—
Lifetime conversion ratelifetime upgrades ÷ new users
—

7 Diagnostics verify vs dashboard

CheckModelExpected
D7 retention (model)—11.9% live Q2
Active days D0–D30—~4.3
Active days D31–D365—~15.0
Sponsor rev / WAU / wk—= (clk÷AU)×CPC
Total LTV per download—$2.26 single-wk check

5 Daily retention curve D0 → D365 · log time axis