Two Q3 goals, both anchored to the value of a paid-acquired app install. This page establishes the Q2 paid-growth baselines — measured off the May Meta install campaign — and the +20% September targets.
Q2 baseline · May 11 – 24, 2026 · Meta install campaign
Why this cohort is the baseline. A Meta app-install campaign (ran ~May 12–22) tripled installs for two weeks —
6,262 new users vs a ~1,035/week organic baseline — and is the only paid-acquisition window on record.
So its measured week-1 retention and LTV are the Q2 paid-growth baselines the two rocks improve against.
Rock 1 · App Retention
Week-1 retention from paid growth
Q2 paid baseline
29.8%
1,866 of 6,265 returned wk 1
→
Sept target +20%
35.8%
week-1 return
Measured over the first three weeks of September (new paid cohorts).
Rock 2 · App LTV
LTV per download from paid growth
Q2 paid baseline
$1.67
Sponsor $0.44 + Upgrade $1.23
→
Sept target +20%
$2.00
per paid install
Measured over the month of September (new paid cohorts).
1 Rock 1 baseline — Week-1 retention = 29.8%
Share of each week's new installs that reopened the app the week after they joined (GA4 weekly cohorts). The two paid-surge weeks are the baseline; the organic weeks bracketing them show the house average for context.
Cohort week
New users
Week-1 return
May 3
organic
1,181
45.8%
May 10
paid surge
3,166
30.6%
May 17
paid surge
3,099
29.0%
May 24
organic
1,289
32.0%
May 31
organic
993
42.9%
Paid cohort (May 10–17)
baseline
6,265
29.8%
Paid installs returned in week 1 at 29.8% — vs a ~44% organic baseline (May 3 & May 31). Paid users come back at roughly two-thirds the organic rate; the +20% rock lifts that first-week return to 35.8%.
2 Rock 2 baseline — LTV per download = $1.67
Same cohort-survival model as the all-traffic LTV page, run on the paid cohort's own inputs (its measured retention, its conversions). A paid install came out at $1.67 — about half the app's blended $3.16.
Component
Paid cohort
All-traffic
Upgrade LTV
$1.23
$2.29
Sponsor LTV
$0.44
$0.87
Total LTV / download
$1.67
$3.16
Retention
Paid
Blended
D1
19.9%
26.4%
D7
9.0%
12.3%
D30
3.8%
5.5%
Active days (5-yr)
19.0
27.1
5-yr horizon, $4.50 sponsor CPC, 78% annual renewal, geometric sub-LTV. Lower LTV is driven by both worse retention (fewer active days → less sponsor value) and lower conversion to paid (upgrade LTV $1.23 vs $2.29). The +20% rock lifts a paid install to $2.00.
3 How the two rocks connect
They're the same lever pulled twice. Week-1 retention (Rock 1) is the leading indicator; LTV (Rock 2) is the lagging dollar outcome. Retaining more paid installs past week 1 increases their active days (more sponsor-click value) and gives them more chances to upgrade — so a win on Rock 1 mechanically feeds Rock 2. Both are measured on September paid cohorts against these Q2 baselines.
4 Sources & caveats
Baseline cohort — installs May 10–24 (Meta campaign ~5/12–22), n=6,262. Retention scoped to this cohort via GA4 weekly cohorts; D1/D7/D30 via RevenueCat/GA4.
Spend excluded — per direction. When campaign cost lands, CAC vs the $1.67 (→ $2.00) LTV is the payback check.
Upgrade attribution — the LTV upgrade component credited annual/lifetime purchases during the surge weeks to the paid installs; since ~72% of upgrades happen on install day most genuinely are, but any from the existing base make the paid figure slightly optimistic.
May 11–17 windowed sponsor clicks estimated (~188), scaled from daily totals via May 18–24's known ratio; May 18–24 (441) is exact. Sponsor is the smaller LTV component.
Monthly subs = $0 — that tier launched in June, so the May baseline cohort is annual + lifetime only.